For many, it may be difficult to imagine that the seemingly unobtrusive cardboard is actually an important indicator of the macroeconomic health of the United States. Cardboard is a key component of the supply chain and is widely used in e-commerce transactions and store shipments. Therefore, cardboard demand and price data have been used by economists to judge the overall macroeconomic health of the economy. Recently, the U.S. Bank said that as cardboard prices are about to rebound, this marks a potential crisis in the United States that is about to say goodbye to the “cardboard recession.”

Cardboard prices will finally rise.

The decline in U.S. cardboard prices has been ongoing since the second half of 2022, a phenomenon that has caused economists to worry that this may be a sign of a recession in the U.S. economy. However, the latest U.S. Bank survey shows that cardboard prices in the U.S. may rise dramatically in the coming quarters, which is clearly a positive signal for the U.S. economy as a whole.

George Staphos, U.S. Bank Research analyst, said: “From our survey of several independent cardboard producers, we have raised cardboard price growth expectations from 0.6% to more than 3%. In my opinion, this is very important...In addition, respondents generally communicate to us a strong feeling that cardboard prices will continue to rise.”While he acknowledges that the growth in U.S. cardboard prices is largely due to inflation, the U.S. Bank survey shows that demand expectations also work.The report said that in the next 6 to 12 months, 62% of respondents believe cardboard demand will be “better” or “much better”.

Is the United States coming out of the “carton box” recession?

In the past two years, despite high U.S. inflation, the demand for cardboard has remained low, especially last year, when U.S. cardboard demand has dropped to a new low since 2009, and many analysts fear this means that U.S. consumer spending has shrunk sharply.

In June last year, the company announced that the U.S. has entered the “Cardboard Box Recession” period, and warned that this will affect all aspects of the labour market to the stock market, and that the market’s demand for cardboard boxes has shrunk for several quarters in a row.

However, since the second half of last year, U.S. economic data and market trends have come up unexpectedly. U.S. consumer spending has remained resilient in recent months, which has also driven U.S. stock markets to climb to record highs. In this context, cardboard demand has also warmed up, which will further strengthen economists’ confidence in the U.S. economy.

The relationship of cardboard demand with the U.S. economy

Cardboard boxes are widely used as packaging materials, so that their demand can directly reflect the production and sales situation in various industries. For example, the rapid development of e-commerce has greatly increased the demand for cardboard boxes, because behind every online transaction there is a need for cardboard boxes to package and transport goods. Similarly, the production activity of many industries such as retail, manufacturing and other industries can not be separated from cardboard boxes. Therefore, the change in cardboard demand can more accurately reflect the activity of these industries.

The decline in cardboard demand over the past year is mainly due to interruptions in the global supply chain and rising raw material prices. This has caused producers to face cost pressures, thereby affecting the output and prices of cardboard.As the global economy gradually recovers, supply chain problems are alleviated, cardboard demand is also beginning to rebound.

Overall, the recovery of U.S. cardboard prices and demand indicates that the U.S. economy is recovering from a downturn. Despite inflationary pressures, the overall market is expected to improve, which provides positive signals for future economic development. Cardboard as a sunshine for macroeconomic health will continue to play its important role in helping economists and market participants better grasp the economic trend.